建设用地扩张过程的时间均衡态势分析

为科学认识和合理评价建设用地扩张过程，分析经济增长与建设用地扩张之间的相互关系，该文探讨性提出了建设用地扩张的时间均衡概念，集成基于IPAT方程的脱钩分析方法和变异系数构建了建设用地扩张的时间均衡指数，并以江苏通州为例，对其1986－2008年期间的建设用地扩张过程进行了分析。结果表明，无论在年度尺度上，还是放宽到4 a时间尺度，通州建设用地扩张与GDP增长始终处于弱脱钩状态，协调性指数C1和C4均变化较大，说明协调关系仍不稳定；时间均衡指数E则呈现出了先是快速下降，而后略有提高的态势，表明就扩张速度自身变异程度及其与经济发展速度的协调性关系视角来看，通州建设用地扩张的时间均衡态势不容乐观。该模型能较好地刻画区域建设用地扩张与经济增长的耦合变化历程，可为科学认识和理解建设用地扩张过程提供思路。

Temporal equilibrium analysis on process of construction land expansion

Abstract: The purpose of this study aimed to discuss the process of construction land expansion and its relationship with economic growth. Firstly, the definitions of temporal equilibrium of construction land expansion were discussed in this research, and an integration model was built up based on coefficient of variation and decoupling mode based on IPAT. The temporal equilibrium index was calculated by this model, and it reflected the temporal equilibrium posture of construction land expansion. Furthermore, the empirical analysis took Tongzhou in Jiangsu Province for an example, and its process of construction land expansion during 1986-2008 was analyzed. The following conclusions were drawn: 1)According to the evaluation results of the coordination between construction land expansion and economic growth in the view of decoupling analysis, at 1 year scale in Tongzhou, the relationship between construction land expansion and economic development was in a weak decoupling state, and there were large changes of coordination index C, proving a poor coordination. 2) Using the co-integration analysis and VAR models, we measured the interaction response cycle of economic growth and construction land expansion. Results showed that the response period was 4 years. Thus, the time scale was relaxed to 4 years. Then the relationship between construction land expansion and economic growth remained in a weak decoupling state during the 7 time phase (1986－1990, 1990－1993, 1993－1996, 1996－1999, 1999－2002, 2002－2005, 2005－2008) and the coordination index C and C′ both increased firstly and then decreased, indicating that there was a growing gap between the actual rate and ideal rate of the construction land expansion. 3) The temporal equilibrium index (E) of construction land expansion referred to C and its coefficient of variation (CV). CV of construction land's annual average growth rate was higher, and showed a tendency of increased volatility in Tongzhou. Combining the above analysis and calculation results of E, the investigation shows that E of construction land expansion in Tongzhou firstly appeared to decline rapidly, and then increased slightly within a small margin, holistically indicating that its temporal equilibrium of construction land expansion was not optimistic. Many factors would affect the change of E. We concluded there was close contact between the changing trend of E and both economic growth characteristics and relevant national land use policy's implement. Finally, this paper has found that the model can depict the changes of coupling process between construction land expansion and economic growth, which provides scientific new ideas for understanding the process of regional construction land expansion.