基于案例模糊推理的土木工程造价估算方法研究

项目策划和可行性研究阶段是土木工程造价控制的重要阶段,然而传统的造价估算方法难以满足估算精度和科技进步需要。本文运用模糊数学的有关理论,介绍了一个基于案例推理(CBR)的土木工程造价估算系统的主要结构和数学模型,并结合实际案例介绍了系统应用情况。一方面,由于该系统以土木工程工料消耗为基础,故可以减小时间、历史状况等因素对价格估算的影响,也有利于应用以工程量清单为基础的国际惯例。另一方面,系统具有的对案例库的更新功能,可适应土木工程科技不断发展的要求,这些都会提高系统计算结果的准确程度和系统的实用价值。利用案例推理系统估算住宅建筑主要工料消耗的计算实例表明,基于案例推理系统是有效的,它可为土木工程造价估算决策提供了有价值的参考依据。

THE STUDY ON THE CASE- BASED REASONING METHOD OF THE COST- ESTIMATION IN CIVIL ENGINEERING

The stage of the plan and feasibility study is very important for the cost control in the civil engineering. But the traditional cost estimation methods are difficult to meet the needs of the estimation precision and the developing science and technology in civil engineering. Using the theory of Fuzzy Mathematics, this paper introduces the main structure and some mathematic models about a case - based reasoning (CBR) system of the. cost estimation in civil engineering. This paper also introduces the application of this system by an engineering living example. On the one hand, Some influences on cost estimation , which often caused by those factors , such as time and history condition, can be reduced. , because this CBR system is based on the major consumption of the materials and labour in civil engineering. And this system helps a lot in using the international usance which based on the quantitative sheet. On the other hand , the function of the case - based updating in this CBR system, can meet the needs of the developing science and technology on civil engineering. All that will increase the calculation precision and the practicabe value of this CBR system. The engineering living example about the using of this CBR system in a housing building cost estimation demonstrates that this CBR system is effective, and this CBR system, can offer the useful references for the decision - making on the cost in civil engineering .