基于生命周期模型的农户储蓄变动机制研究

运用1997-2006年省际动态面板数据研究了我国农村居民储蓄率变动的决定因素,并检验了永久收入假说(生命周期理论)对中国农村居民的适应性。实证研究发现,我国农村家庭储蓄率持续攀升以及时空差异的主要原因在于农村居民储蓄习惯(滞后储蓄率)、收入增长率、实际利率和宏观经济波动;但与人口年龄结构相关的因素对农村居民储蓄率变动影响较小,实证结果部分地支持生命周期理论假说。因此,从中短期来看,我国农村居民家庭储蓄率依然较高,应设计出刺激农民消费、减少储蓄的中短期政策组合,同时从制度层面来理顺农村储蓄资金转化为投资的渠道。

The Determinants of Chinese Rural Household Saving Rate:An Empirical Research Based on Life Cycle Model

It has been econometrically analysed the determinants of rural household saving,applied the dynamic panel data on Chinese rural household saving rate at provincial level from the period of 1997-2006,and has been examined residents’ suitability of the permanent income theory(life cycle hypothesis).We find that the main determinants that rural China’s household saving rate has been rising and variations over time and space lies in savings inertia(the lagged saving rate),the income growth rate,the real interest rate(in many cases),and the macroeconomic variations rather than the variable impacts on the rural household saving rate relating to population’s age structure,which partly provide support for the life cycle hypothesis.Therefore,the short-term policy mix should be designed to stimulate rural consumption and reduce savings as well as formulating rules and regulations for the mechanism of Chinese household saving-investment transformation on account of high rate in Chinese rural household saving.