基于可恢复冲击效应的继电器可靠性评估方法

继电器是航天器等系统的关键元件之一，精准评估其可靠性对保证全系统的安全稳定至关重要。现有继电器可靠性研究未考虑在材料和环境等因素的影响下，性能状态冲击性变化存在可恢复性的特点，可能会造成评估结果不准确。为解决此问题，综合考虑各性能参数的自然退化过程、可恢复冲击效应、退化相关性，基于维纳过程和离散时间马尔可夫链的建模理论，提出了适用于继电器的退化和冲击模型。进而，针对同时估计模型全部参数存在困难的问题，提出了一种多阶段的模型参数估计方法。并且，针对可靠性评估，提出了一种基于蒙特卡洛技术的可靠度近似计算方法。结果表明，所提出的可靠性评估方法精度较高，其拟合优度为0.103 7,比现有方法提高了约70%。

Reliability evaluation method of relay based on recoverable shock effect

Relay is one kind of key components for systems such as spacecraft. Accurate reliability evaluation is essential for ensuring thesafety and stability of the entire system. In the existing reliability studies of relays, the recoverable shocks resulting from factors such asmaterials and environment are not considered, which may cause inaccurate reliability evaluation results. To solve this problem, thisarticle proposes degradation and shock models based on the modeling theories of Wiener process and discrete time Markov chain byincorporating natural degradation process, recoverable shock effect, and degradation correlation between performance parameters. Then,a multi-stage method to estimate model parameters is proposed to handle the problem that it is difficult to estimate all the modelparameters simultaneously. Furthermore, for the reliability evaluation, an approximate calculation method of reliability is proposed byusing the Monte Carlo technique. Results show that the proposed reliability evaluation method can ensure a favorable accuracy, and thecorresponding goodness of fitting is 0. 103 7, which is about 70% higher than the existing methods.