The SIC botnet lifecycle model: A step beyond traditional epidemiological models

Botnets, overlay networks built by cyber criminals from numerous compromised network-accessible devices, have become a pressing security concern in the Internet world. Availability of accurate mathematical models of population size evolution enables security experts to plan ahead and deploy adequate resources when responding to a growing threat of an emerging botnet. In this paper, we introduce the Susceptible-Infected-Connected (SIC) botnet model. Prior botnet models are largely the same as the models for the spread of malware among computers and disease among humans. The SIC model possesses some key improvements over earlier models: (1) keeping track of only key node stages (Infected and Connected), hence being applicable to a larger set of botnets; and (2) being a Continuous-Time Markov Chain-based model, it takes into account the stochastic nature of population size evolution. The SIC model helps the security experts with the following two key analyses: (1) estimation of the global botnet size during its initial appearance based on local measurements; and (2) comparison of botnet mitigation strategies such as disinfection of nodes and attacks on botnet’s Command and Control (C&C) structure. The analysis of the mitigation strategies has been strengthened by the development of an analytical link between the SIC model and the P2P botnet mitigation strategies. Specifically, one can analyze how a random sybil attack on a botnet can be fine-tuned based on the insight drawn from the use of the SIC model. We also show that derived results may be used to model the sudden growth and size fluctuations of real-world botnets.