中国生态保护政策的县域经济效应——来自国家重点生态功能区的证据

为保障生态产品供给,中国设立了限制开发的国家重点生态功能区,建立了生态保护转移支付制度.本文首次在县域层面构建2002~2017年县级面板数据,运用倾向得分匹配法构造政策组的“反事实”情形,基于双重差分法评估重点生态功能区政策的县域经济效应.结果表明,该政策提高了县域财力、长期来看一定程度改善了产业结构;以标准财政缺口为主的资金分配机制弱化了县域经济发展激励,资金补助不能完全抵消限制开发对县域经济带来的负向影响;固定资产投资和内资企业受影响较大.随着投入资金累积、生态产品价值的转化,该负向效应随时间而减弱、经济促增效应逐渐显现.政策效应在不同生态功能和经济区位间表现出明显的异质性.建议持续增加生态转移支付资金、将生态产品供给数量和质量作为资金分配依据,考虑按生态功能类型设计差异化政策,更好激励县域生态产品高水平供给与经济价值实现的双赢,促进区域均衡发展.

Counties' economic effect of ecological protection policies in China: Evidence from national key ecological function zones

To ensure the supply of ecological products, China established the National Key Ecological Function Zones (NKEFZ) and initiated a central general equalized transfer payment project. By employing county-level panel datasets from 2002 to 2017, this paper used the Propensity Score Matching to construct a "counterfactual" scenario for the policy group, and evaluated the income effect based on the difference-in-difference strategy. Results show that the policy has improved the financial resources of counties and improved the industrial structure to a certain extent in the long run; the funding allocation mechanism based on the standard financial gap has weakened the incentives for county economic development, and the financial subsidies cannot fully offset the negative impact of development restrictions on county economies; fixed asset investment and domestic enterprises are more affected. With the accumulation of investment funds and the transformation of ecological product value, the negative effect will weaken over time and the economic promotion effect will gradually appear. The policy effect shows obvious heterogeneity among different ecological functions and economic zones. It is recommended to continuously increase the ecological transfer funds, use the quantity and quality of ecological product supply as the basis for fund allocation, and consider designing differentiated policies according to ecological function types to better stimulate the win-win situation between the high level of ecological product supply and economic value realization in counties and facilitate balanced regional development.