金沙江下游梯级库群为核心的综合交通系统——系统构建及其微观动力特征

为加强梯级水库的综合作用，追求运输利益的最大化做到不同交通体系之间的无缝连接，配合水库的综合调度，基于综合交通系统理论提出了一套以通航枢纽作为集散中心地、配合中心地服务范围内的道路交通网络的水陆耦合集散交通系统。以金沙江下游准备建设的四个梯级水库所在区域为对象进行了模型应用，在区域经济增长率保持在7%的假设下，得到2015—2050年这一地区的航运交通影响范围和货运量、货运经济效益区间，发现在这一地区梯级水库的在区域交通经济中能起到很大作用，且这种影响随着梯级的完建增强。集散交通系统货运量及扩散面积与梯级水库日调度之间存在关系，水库调度对整个系统有脉冲式作用，累计影响货运扩散。将扩散面积随日调度逐渐变化的过程作为系统的微观特征，以一个符合运行标准的调度方案作为金沙江下游水陆耦合集散交通系统分别在建成两库和四库完建时的日尺度变化情景，基于集散交通系统微观尺度特征的脉冲微分系统如可获得渐近稳定解，此时的控制策略（即调度方案）是系统的最优脉冲收获策略，也即最有利于集散交通系统物资扩散的相对交通最优调度方案。所采用的调度方案不能使系统获得渐进稳定解，因此该方案还不是交通最优调度方案。

Integrated transportation system of lower Jinsha River with land-water coupling and cascade reservoirs as its core. Construction and microscopic dynamic characteristics

A combined shipping-ground transport system (CSGTS) is built integrating the river channels and existing ground transportation network based on the theory of intermodal transport and comprehensive transport system, to enhance the integrated regulation of water resources in the background of different developing progress. This system is applied in the scheduling of four cascade reservoirs on the lower Jinsha River, and predicts the impacting scope, freight volume and profit of shipping traffic in 2015-2050 for the condition of a regional economic growth rate of 7%. It reveals the important role of cascade reservoirs in regional traffic economy and their impact increasing with the cascade building. For the system of the lower Jinsha River, its freight traffic volume and freight spreading area are correlated with the daily scheduling of the cascade reservoirs. Under a scheduling scheme that meets the operating standards, a scenario of its daily scale variations is demonstrated for the cases of two reservoirs and four reservoirs in operation. This shows that the reservoir scheduling produces a pulse-type effect on the entire system and affects the spreading of freight cumulatively. For a pulse differential system based on the microscopic scale characteristics of a CSGTS, if an asymptotic stable solution can be obtained, the control strategy (or the scheduling scheme) so obtained will be the optimal pulse-harvesting strategy of the CSGTS.