哈萨克斯坦主要农机需求量预测分析

哈萨克斯坦农业资源丰富,发展潜力巨大,农业是中哈两国合作的重点领域之一。然而,受制于农业机械老旧和国内机械设备产能落后,哈萨克斯坦农业机械化与现代化发展缓慢。由于哈萨克斯坦国家政府对农业机械化发展的支持,中哈在农机技术与产品方面的贸易往来势必加强。本研究以黑龙江农垦与新疆生产建设兵团的农机装备水平为参考对象,预测分析哈萨克斯坦主要农机需求量与市场潜力。研究发现哈萨克斯坦农机需求量大,拖拉机、排灌机械、植保机械、收获机械和播种机械预测市场潜力分别为57.5万台、2.7万台、6.4万台、8.2万台、14.7万台以上。此外,由于农业经济基础薄弱,哈萨克斯坦短时间内不可能达到预测的农机数量,但可作为其未来农业机械化与现代化发展的参考。

Forecast demand for Kazakhstan s major agricultural machinery

As one of the key cooperation areas between China and Kazakhstan,Kazakhstan s agriculture had rich farmland resources and great potential for development.However,due to the severe obsolescence of agricultural machinery and the backward domestic machinery production capacity,the development of agricultural mechanization and modernization was slow in Kazakhstan.Supported by the Kazakh national government,China-Kazakhstan agricultural machinery technology and product trade would be increased.To predict the demand and market potential for major agricultural machinery in Kazakhstan,this paper used the agricultural machinery equipment level of the Heilongjiang Land Reclamation Area and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps as a reference area.The result showed that Kazakhstan had a large demand for agricultural machinery.The predicted market potential for tractors,drainage and irrigation machinery,plant protection machinery and harvester and planter were at least 575000,27000,64000,82000 and 147000.Moreover,it was in a long time that Kazakhstan could reach the predicted number of agricultural machinery.Due to the weak agricultural economic foundation,it would be used as a reference for its future agricultural mechanization and modern agricultural development.