权衡理论与优序融资理论的解释力研究：来自中国上市公司的经验证据

通过分析权衡理论与优序融资理论下资本结构的影响因素,以资产负债率、短期有息债务比率及长期债务比率为代理变量,采用OLS回归法对上市公司的资本结构进行了实证分析。结果表明,一方面,优序融资理论能对目前我国的资本结构及其影响因素做出较好的解释,但由于我国资本市场本身固有的特点,资产规模与资产负债率呈显著正相关;另一方面,短期负债比率与企业的盈利能力及股利支付率有更为显著的相关性,而长期负债比率则与企业规模及增长机会变量的相关性更为显著。

Study on the Interpretable Power of the Trade-off Hypothesis and Pecking Order Hypothesis——Evidence from the Listed Companies of China

By taking asset-liability ratio,short debt ratio and long debt ratio as the proxy variables,this paper analyzed the determinants of capital structure under the trade-off hypothesis and the pecking order hypothesis,and conducted an empirical study on capital structure of listed companies by OLS regression analysis.The results revealed that the pecking order hypothesis tends to be more consistent with the capital structure of China,while the firm size is significantly positive related to the asset-liability ratio according to the characteristic of Chinese capital market.On the other hand,the relationship between the short debt ratio and profitability,rate of dividend is more remarkable;while the relationship between the long debt ratio and firm size,growth opportunity is more remarkable.