生态文明指标优化和权重计量的实证研究——基于PSIR与SEM相结合方法

研究生态文明指标及其权重对客观科学评价生态文明具有重要理论与实践指导意义。为解决生态文明指标及其权重研究的不足，创建了压力(Pressure)-状态(State)-影响(Impact)-响应(Response)与结构方程模型(Structural Equation Modeling)相结合的方法，利用中国及31省域2007~2016年动态面板数据来优化筛选生态文明指标和计量其权重，并将PSIR SEM、熵权法、AHP法算得的指标权重进行比较以揭示PSIR SEM方法在指标选取和权重计量的特性。研究表明：（1）生态文明指标包括社会产业经济(8指标)、资源环境(9指标)、生态效益(7指标)、生态文明响应(10指标)4方面且相互发生关系，并强化了生态、注重生态文明响应，弱化了产业经济，较已有未考虑生态文明响应、注重经济而非生态等更合理；（2）生态文明指标权重为生态文明响应（0.292 9）、生态效益（0.250 3）、社会产业经济（0.239 3）、资源环境（0.225 3），生态指标与产业经济指标权重差距不大，更能全面反映生态文明产业与生态共生的本质属性；（3）31省域中，处于生态文明阶段的省域数量（14省域，占比45.16%）要少于处于非生态文明阶段的省域数量（17省域，占比54.84%），较已有“无论区域是否处于生态文明阶段，均采取‘一刀切’地对其生态文明评价”等更合理

Empirical Research on Optimizing Indicators for Ecological Civilization and Calculating Indicators' Weightings with the Method of PSIR and SEM

There is some important guidance significance for researching the indicators and their weightings of ecological civilization to objectively evaluate ecological civilization. To overcome some defects of indicators and their weightings in measurement of ecological civilization,the paper constructs the method combining pressurestate- impact-response with structural equation modeling to optimize for screening the final indicators and to measure its indicators'weightings with the dynamic panel data of China and 31 provinces from 2007 to 2016. And then the indicators'weightings by PSIR-SEM,AHP and entropy method are compared to conclude some characteristics and advantage of the method of PSIR-SEM in this paper. Research indicates these followings. (1) The indicator system of ecological civilization contains society industry economy (eight indicators),resources and environment (nine indicators ), ecology benefit (seven indicators ), ecological civilization response (ten indicators) and they have mutual relationship of each other. Here ecology indicators and ecological civilization response are strengthened while industry economy indicators are weakened,which is more reasonable than the current existing researches of leaving ecological civilization response out of consideration and strengthening economy indicators instead of ecology indicators. (2) The indicators'weightings of ecological civilization are respectively ecological civilization response (0. 292 9),ecology benefit (0. 250 3),society industry economy (0. 239 3),resources and environment (0. 225 3). The weightings between ecology indicators and economy indicators are balanced and are not great difference,which can entirety reflect the essential attribute of ecological civilization. (3) In all thirty-one provinces,the quantities of provinces which are at state of ecological civilization (including fourteen provinces,forty-five point one six percent) are more than the quantities of provinces which are not at state of ecological civilization (including seventeen provinces,fifty-four point eight four percent), which is more reasonable than the current existing research that whether the regions are at state of ecological civilization or not,ecological civilization will be evaluated directly.