河南省棉花的气候风险研究

地理过渡带附近的农业气候风险度对气候变化有较为敏感的响应。作者在前人对农作物适宜度研究的基础上，建立棉花气候适宜度模型和风险度指标，对河南省棉花气候风险度进行了深入的分析。研究发现．近40年米河南省棉花气候风险度有逐渐增加的趋势．其中降水量对气候风险度增加的作用最重要．而且气候适宜度及其变率对风险度的变化的影响在不同时期有不同的表现；风险度的增加速度有明显的区域差异性和过渡性．在东西方向上．东部平原区的风险度变化快于西部山区．其中黄淮平原中南部与伏牛山区的对比最为显著．在南北方向上．黄淮平原中南部到黄河中游谷地的快速增长带与黄河下游沿岸到中游北侧的低速增长带的对比特别明显．这主要是地形过渡带和气候过渡带作用的结果；风险度的变化过程也有明显的区域差异性．跳跃式变化是河南东部风险度变化中的重要特点．这种突变特点在南北方向上有明显的纬度差异性；在河南西部山地的风险度变化中，跳跃式变化很少见，尽管该区近40年棉花气候风险度的变化倾向仍为增加趋势．但自20世纪80年代末以来．风险度逐渐减小．

Changes of crop climate risk degree: a case study on cotton in Henan Province

Basing on previous researches, this article established the cotton climate suitability model and the risk index to analyze the cotton climate risk degree in Henan Province. The result shows: in the last 40 years, the cotton climate risk degree presents a gradual increasing tendency in which the precipitation plays a very important role, and the climate suitability and its change have different performance to the risk change influence in different phases; the increase rate of risk degree is significantly regional and transitional. For example, from the eastern plain to the western mountainous area, the risk change rate becomes slower and slower, so the contrast of the central-southern Huang-Huai plain and Funiu highland is most remarkable; and in the north-south direction, the contrast between the fast increase belt from the central-southern Huang-Huai plain to the middle Yellow River and the slow increase belt from the northern side of the middle Yellow River to the lower Yellow River bank is especially remarkable, being possibly the results of topographic and climatic transitional belt; and the risk change process also has obvious regional differences. For instance, jumping change is an important characteristic in eastern Henan, while in the western mountainous area it is very rare. Although the 40 years changing tendency in this area is still increasing, the tendency has reduced gradually since the end of the 1980s, i.e. this sudden change type has obvious latitudinal difference.