新型城镇化对旅游效率的空间溢出与门槛效应

以2001—2019年中国30个省（市、区）为研究样本，利用熵值法和Bootstrap-DEA模型对其新型城镇化水平和旅游效率进行测度，继而借助双变量LISA模型考察二者的空间关联特征，并采用空间杜宾模型和门槛模型等方法，探析新型城镇化对旅游效率的空间效应及其动态非线性影响。研究表明：1）研究期内中国新型城镇化水平和旅游效率呈现不同程度的波动提升态势，中、西部地区增幅最大；两者分别呈现东部＞中部＞西部＞东北部以及中部＞东部＞西部＞东北部的空间分异特征。2）新型城镇化和旅游效率存在正向空间关联性，局部空间聚类以H-H型、L-L型为主；新型城镇化对旅游效率具有正向直接效应与负向空间溢出效应。3）在旅游产业地位这一门槛变量的作用下，新型城镇化对旅游效率的正向影响存在双重门槛特征。

Spatial Spillover and Threshold Effect of New Urbanization on Tourism Efficiency

New urbanization promotes the free flow and redistribution of tourism elements in space and accelerates the transformation of the tourism economy to intensive and efficient development, which is one of the possible ways to optimize tourism efficiency. Taking 30 provinces in China as case studies, this study utilized the entropy method and bootstrap-data envelopment analysis to measure the level of new urbanization and tourism efficiency from 2001 to 2019. A bivariate LISA model was adopted to investigate their spatial correlation characteristics. Spatial Durbin and threshold models were used to analyze the spatial effect and dynamic non-linear impact of the development of new urbanization on tourism efficiency. The results revealed the following: 1) During the study period, the level of new urbanization and tourism efficiency in China showed varying degrees of fluctuation and improvement, with the largest increase in the Central and Western areas. Spatial differentiation characteristics were in the order of Eastern Area > Central Area > Western Area > Northeastern Area and Central Area > Eastern Area > Western Area > Northeastern Area. 2) A positive spatial correlation was observed between new urbanization and tourism efficiency. Local spatial correlation types of spatial agglomeration were namely H-H and L-L. A total of two new urbanization areas had a spatial effect on tourism efficiency. The direct and indirect effect coefficients were 0.274 3 and -0.634 5, respectively. New urbanization in this region was found to have a positive effect on the improvement of tourism efficiency, while the improvement of new urbanization in adjacent areas is expected to inhibit the improvement of tourism efficiency in this region. 3) Under the influence of the threshold variable of tourism industry status, the positive effect of new urbanization on tourism efficiency exhibited a double threshold, showing a U-shaped change trend of "decline first and then rise." Based on the results, this study proposes differentiated countermeasures to improve regional tourism efficiency, expands the research on the non-linear relationship between new urbanization and tourism economics from the perspective of comprehensive development of new urbanization, and enhances the academic attention on the feedback effect of new urbanization on tourism economy.