粤港澳大湾区保险业发展水平时空演变特征及对经济增长的影响

保险业在中国经济发展、转型和产业升级等方面发挥着越来越重要的作用。论文利用粤港澳大湾区2006—2019年的市级面板数据,运用熵权、核密度估计和空间计量等方法,研究粤港澳大湾区保险业发展水平时空特征及其对经济增长的影响,结果表明：① 保险业发展水平综合指数在波动中上升,11个城市保险业发展水平呈现香港、澳门和广州单核领跑大湾区东、中、西部的特征,珠三角9市呈现广州、深圳和珠海单核领跑广佛肇、深莞惠和珠中江三大经济圈的特征;② 11个城市保险业发展水平存在两极分化现象,但高值区与低值区的绝对差异有缩小趋势,低值区城市之间的差距有扩大趋势;③ 保险业发展对本地区经济增长产生了显著的正向影响,在其他影响因素保持不变的情况下,保险业发展水平每提升1%,本地区经济增长0.0538%。保险业发展具有负溢出效应,但未通过显著性检验。研究成果为粤港澳大湾区相关部门制定保险业与经济发展相互促进的产业政策提供了理论依据。

Spatial and temporal features of insurance industry development level and its impact on economic growth in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

The insurance industry is playing an increasingly important role in China's economic development, transformation and industrial upgrading. Based on the city panel data of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) from 2006 to 2019 and using entropy weights, kernel density estimation, and spatial econometric methods, this study examined the spatial-temporal characteristics of the development level of the insurance industry in the area and its impact on economic growth. The findings are as follows: 1) The comprehensive index of insurance industry development level increased with fluctuation. The insurance industry development level in 11 cities of the GBA showed the characteristics of Hong Kong, Macao, and Guangzhou leading in the eastern, central, and western regions, and Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Zhuhai leading in the three economic circles of Guangzhou-Foshan-Zhaoqing, Shenzhen-Dongguan-Huizhou, and Zhuhai-Zhongshan-Jiangmen. 2) The development level of the insurance industry in the 11 cities is polarized, but the absolute difference between high-value and low-value regions tends to decrease, and the gap between low-value areas tends to widen. 3) The development of the insurance industry has a significant positive impact on regional economic growth. If other influencing factors remain unchanged, each 1% increase in the development level of the insurance industry will result in a regional economic growth of 0.0538%. The development of the insurance industry has negative spillover effect, but it does not pass the significance test. The research results provide a theoretical basis for relevant departments in the Greater Bay Area to formulate industrial policies that promote the insurance industry and economic development mutually.