青藏高原铁路沿线雪崩危险度评价方法

简要介绍了 3条进藏铁路的主要雪害 ,指出雪崩危险度评价对铁路选线和配置防护雪害设施有重要意义。青藏铁路的雪害主要是风吹雪 ,滇藏、川藏铁路的雪害主要是雪崩。雪崩的形成和发生的必要条件是一定深度的积雪和一定范围的坡度。笔者通过理论计算得出积雪的临界厚度和山坡的临界安全角度。在分析影响雪崩的主要因素的基础上 ,利用模糊归一化方法来评价雪崩的发生危险度 ,并引用国外方法来计算雪崩达到某点的概率。最后 ,指出雪崩评价方法需要改进之处和铁路选线时应注意的问题。

Method for Avalanche Risk Evaluation along Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Railway

Snow disaster of three railway lines going to Tibet is introduced, and the significance of risk evaluation for avalanche in selecting the railway line and disposing avalanche protective facilities described. The main snow calamity of Qinghai-Tibet is snow drift, and that of Sichuan-Tibet and Yunnan-Tibet is avalanche. The requirements of avalanche formation are the thickness of snow and the slope angle. By theoretical calculation, the critical snow thickness and the critical slope angle are obtained. On the basis of analyzing the main factors affecting avalanche, the method of fuzzy-combining to one is used to evaluate the risk of avalanche and a foreign method is used to compute the probability of avalanche reaching point. The points need to be improved of the evaluation method and precautions in line selection are also suggested.