工程量清单计价下招标控制价的预测研究

在刚刚颁布的《建设工程工程量清单计价规范》（GB 50500—2008）中,提出了招标控制价的概念.招标控制价是事先设置的工程报价最高限价,招标人只有将招标控制价编制的高低合适才能体现优秀企业的竞争力,提高招标效率并降低工程造价,因此招标人如何在工程量清单计价模式下准确、快速地预测招标控制价对招标工作有重要的意义.根据灰色系统理论,深入考虑了招标控制价各主要变量之间的相互影响,建立了灰色预测模型对招标控制价进行预测,并对模型的构造、计算、误差精度进行了详细说明,最后通过工程实例进行了验证.

The Prediction Study of Bidding Control Price Based on Valuation with Bill Quantity

In＂Pricing Specification of Bill of Quantities for Construction Project＂GB50500- 2008 recently promulgated, the concept of bidding control price is proposed. The bidding con-trol price is the ceiling price of the project quoted price which is set beforehand. The bidding control price which tenders appropriately compile can embody the excellent enterprisers competitiveness,improve the efficiency of bidding and reduce the project cost, so how to forecast the bidding control price accurately and rapidly has important significance for the bidding work. In this paper, based on the gray system theory and taking the interaction between main variables of the bidding control price into due consideration, the gray prediction model is established to forecast the bidding control price. The structure, calculation, error precision of the model are explained in details. Finally it is verified by the projects.