基于ARMA的混合卷烟销售预测模型

为了提高卷烟销售预测准确性，平衡生产与需求，协同工商业，建立切实合理的月供应计划，提出了一个基于ARMA(autoregressive moving average model，自回归滑动平均模型)的混合卷烟销售预测模型，实现卷烟月总量的预测。该模型首先基于ARMA建立月预测模型；再用计划评审技术PERT得到月预测经验期望值；最后通过设定加权系数，综合两个预测值得到月预测销售总量。实验结果证明该模型能够较好地预测出规格卷烟月销售总量值变化。

Hybrid forecast model for cigarette sales based on ARMA

In order to improve the accuracy of forecast for cigarette sales,balance the demand and production and realized cigarette industry and commerce synergy marketing,proposed an hybrid forecast model based on ARMA(autoregressive moving average model) for cigarette sales.First,forecasted the monthly sales data by the forecast method based on ARMA,then forecasted the experience expected values by program evaluation and review techniques(PERT),and weighed the forecast data of monthly sales by the above two values....