FRAX评估江苏镇江地区中老年人群骨折风险的回顾性研究

目的评估FRAX■工具对江苏镇江地区中老年人骨质疏松性骨折的预测价值。方法对1070例江苏镇江地区中老年人群进行分组性研究,应用FRAX■工具计算未来10年主要骨质疏松性骨折(probability of major osteoporosis fracture,PMOF)和髋部骨折的概率(probability of hip fracture,PHF),分析年龄、体质量指数、有无骨质疏松性骨折史以及不同骨量对FRAX预测结果的影响。结果随着年龄的增长10年内PMOF和PHF同步增加;随着体重指数的增加,10年内PMOF和PHF同步下降;有骨质疏松性骨折史的人群10年内PMOF和PHF明显增加;随着骨量下降,10年内PMOF和PHF逐渐增加;不同骨量受人群在不同骨质疏松骨折风险组中的分布不同。在骨质疏松性骨折高风险人群中,骨质疏松者占78.1%,低骨量者占20.7%,正常骨量者占1.3%。结论FRAX■工具可用于江苏镇江地区中老年人群骨质疏松骨折风险的评估。FRAX■工具可能低估了低骨量人群的骨质疏松性骨折的风险,该工具对中老年低骨量人群的预测价值值得进一步研究。

The retrospective study of FRAX in predicting the fracture risk of senile population in Zhenjiang, Jiangsu province

Objective To evaluate the predictive value of FRAX■tool for osteoporotic fractures in senile population in Zhenjiang,Jiangsu province. Methods A total of 1070 senile people in Zhenjiang,Jiangsu province were grouped. The FRAX■tool was used to calculate the probability of major osteoporotic fractures( PMOF) and hip fractures( PHF) in the next 10 years. The effect of age,body mass index,history of osteoporotic fractures,and different bone mass on the prediction result of FRAX were analyzed. Results With the increase of age,the 10-year PMOF and PHF increased simultaneously. With the increase of body mass index,the 10-year PMOF and PHF decreased simultaneously. The 10-year PMOF and PHF increased significantly in the population with a history of osteoporotic fractures. The 10-year PMOF and PHF increased simultaneously with the decrease of bone mass. The distribution of different bone mass in different risk groups of osteoporotic fractures was different. In the high risk group of osteoporosis fracture,the subjects with osteoporosis accounted for 78. 1%,with osteopenia accounted for 20. 7%,and with normal bone mass accounted for 1. 3%. Conclusion FRAX■tool can be used to assess the risk of osteoporosis fractures for senile population in Zhenjiang,Jiangsu province. FRAX■tool may underestimate the risk of osteoporosis fracture in the people with osteopenia. The predictive value of FRAX■tool for the people with osteopenia deserves further study.