杭州市城市垃圾量的灰色预测及其关联分析

以杭州市历年生活垃圾排出量为参考序列，由人口变化、国民收入等因素组成５个比较数列，按灰色理论计算得关联系数、关联度和关联序，进而分析各因素之间随时间变化的动态关系及其特征。并以城市垃圾量的数据建立了ＧＭ（１，１）模型，预测杭州市垃圾排出量。结果表明，模型精度较高，预测值的验证性良好。我们认为环境水文地质方法可以在提高城市环境质量方面发挥良好的作用。

THE GREY PREDICTION OF THE OUTPUT OF HANGZHOU DOMESTIC GARBAGE AND ITS CORRELATION ANALYSIS

Taking the year output of Hangzhou domestic garbage as reference data-sequence and thechange of population,national income and other factors as five comparison data-sequence,thecorrelation coefficient, correlation degree and correlation array are calculated,and based Ongrey system theory the dynamic relation and its feature of every factor with the change oftime are analysed.The paper has also established the GM(1,1) model to predict the outputof Hangzhou domestic garbage according to the data of them, After calculating the cases thismodel showns that its precise is high enough and the property of test and verification isgood.As the problem of the city garbage is getting more serious,we considered that the envi-ronmental hydrogeological method can play a great role in improving the quality of urban en-vironment.