| Abstract: | The average particulate environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure of never and current smokers and the average lung cancer mortality rate for current smokers is estimated from empirical data. These estimates are used in a linear downward extrapolation of the lung cancer risk/mg of particulate ETS exposure for current smokers to calculate the average lung cancer risk for never smokers and the number of never smoker lung cancer deaths (LCD) in the U.S. in 1980 from exposure to particulate ETS. The estimated average daily inhaled particulate ETS exposure for never smokers is 0.62 mg/day for men and 0.28 mg/day for women. The average never smoker is estimated to retain 11% of the inhaled exposure, for a daily retained exposure of 0.07 mg for men and 0.03 mg for women. Other estimates are: a daily retained exposure for current smokers of 310 mg for men and 249 mg for women, a smoking-attributable lung cancer risk for current smokers in 1980 of 284 LCD/100,000 men and 121 LCD/100,000 women, and an annual retained-exposure lung cancer risk for never smokers of 0.64 LCD/100,000 men and 0.015 LCD/100,000 women. These risks and exposures estimate 12 lung cancer deaths among never smokers from exposure to particulate ETS: 8 among the 11.96 million male never smokers and 4 among the 28.85 million female never smokers in the U.S. in 1980. Conversely, between 655 and 3,610 never smoker lung cancer deaths are estimated from methods based on the average lung cancer risk observed in epidemiological studies of exposure to ETS. Three possible reasons for the discrepancy between the exposure and risk-based estimates are discussed: the excess risks observed in epidemiological studies are due to bias, the relationship between exposure and risk is supralinear, or sidestream tobacco smoke is substantially more carcinogenic than an equivalent exposure to mainstream smoke. |
