基于区域电价之差的输电线路的成本效益分析模型

电力工业体制的改革使输电线路规划的外部环境发生了明显的变化,要求对规划理念和理论进行根本性的转变。为了适应市场化条件下的输电线路的规划,可以从技术经济的角度,综合考虑多种不确定因素,用成本-效益分析的方法来评价输电线路扩展的可行性。文中以区域电价之差作为项目的收益,不仅充分利用了市场提供的电价信息,符合市场化改革的方向,而且避免了预测项目现金流的复杂的计算,具有计算简便的优点。通过引入弹性概念,给出了输电线路容量与区域电价之差之间的数量关系模型,通过分析,说明市场条件下区域电价与输电容量存在着非常敏感的负相关关系。通过算例分析表明,该方法是可行的、有效的,可以作为传统输电项目扩展规划可行性分析的一个重要的补充方法。

Cost-benefit Analysis Model of Transmission Planning Based on Regional Electricity Price Gap

The reformation of electric industry makes the traditional transmission planning change.It must includes the reliability,the economy,the feasibility and so on.Transmission planning in competitive market confronts with many uncertain factors.This paper presents a cost-benefit(analysis) method based on technology economics to estimate the feasibility of transmission expansion in the competitive environment.It also considers electricity price gap as profits of the projects;therefore,it not only takes full advantage of the price information offered by market,according with the tides of power marketing,but also avoids forecasting the cash flow which is greatly complex.Furthermore,it introduces the concept of elasticity to model the relations between capacity and price gap.The case study shows that this method is feasible and efficient.