中国自然灾害时空变化及其社会经济效应

自然灾害的频繁发生对实现全球可持续发展目标构成了严重威胁。中国自然灾害时空演化规律及其社会经济效应研究，对落实国家防灾减灾救灾政策、实现社会经济更高质量发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。通过构建灾情指数模型评估了2000—2018年中国31个省级行政单元的自然灾害受灾程度，采用空间计量模型和地理加权回归（GWR）模型揭示了自然灾害时空格局演变的社会经济效应。结果表明：（1）2000—2018年中国自然灾害受灾程度总体有所下降，空间上呈南高北低的格局，高受灾中心集中在西南、东南地区；（2）受灾面积对经济发展、人口增长、农业生产有明显抑制作用且空间溢出效应显著，而倒塌房屋数量对本地区及邻近省域经济发展有正向促进作用；（3）自然灾害对经济发展、人口增长的负效应自东向西逐渐增加；农业生产效应呈西正东负的格局，这与省域受灾程度、灾害种类及防灾减灾能力密切相关。

Spatio-temporal evolution of natural disasters and its social-economic effects in China

The frequent occurrence of natural disasters has posed a serious threat to the global sustainable development.It is of great significance to study the temporal and spatial evolution and social-economic effects of natural disasters,so as to guide the work of disaster prevention and realize the higher quality development of social economy.This paper measured the natural disaster index of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2018. Based on this,the spatial econometric model and GWR model were used to analyze the social-economic effects with the global and local scope.The results showed that: (1) During the specified time period,the extent of natural disasters in China showed a downward trend,with a spatial pattern that is higher in the south than in the north. Seriously affected disaster areas are concentrated in southwest and southeast China; (2) The inhibitory effect on the economic development,population growth and agricultural production of the affected area were obvious,and the spatial spillover effect was significant. Nevertheless,collapsed houses had positive promoting effect on economic development of this region and neighboring provinces; (3) In macro-geographic space,the negative effects of natural disasters on economic development and population growth were gradually increasing from east to west.While the effect of natural disasters on agricultural production exhibited a pattern that positive in the west and negative in the east. However,these were closely related to the disaster degree,disaster types and disaster prevention and reduction ability of the province.