The stability of driving record over time

In summary, then, 6-year driving records (accidents and convictions for traffic violations) were obtained for a representative sample of 7841 California drivers, of both sexes and all ages. From analysis of these driving record data the following conclusions appear warranted: (1) By far the vast majority of accidents involve previously accident-free drivers, that is. the accident-repeater is responsible for only a small portion of the accident problem. Therefore, traffic safety efforts directed toward the so-called “normal” driver will have a better chance of pay-off. (2) Conviction experience is more stable over time than is accident experience, and both are more stable over time for males than for females. Therefore, predicting future driving performance will be more successful for convictions than for accidents, and more successful for males than for females. (3) Driving record information becomes more reliable as the period of time over which it is accumulated increases. Therefore, for prediction of future performance, or generalizing for any other purpose, it is desirable to use as long a period of time as possible as a driving record base.