基于多主体和前景理论的应急风险决策仿真研究

针对多部门参与的突发事件应急风险决策的建模与仿真问题,提出了一种基于多主体和前景理论的仿真模型及仿真框架。通过引入Agent思想,描述了应急风险决策的多Agent体系结构模型,并对决策主体进行建模;通过引入前景理论思想,着重考虑了随着突发事件的动态演化决策者心理状态变化对决策结果产生的影响。在此基础上,设计并实现了多Agent应急风险决策仿真框架。以石油化工厂火灾应急风险决策为例,验证了仿真模型及框架的有效性和可行性。

Research on Emergency Risk Decision Simulation Based on Multi-agent and Prospect Theory

Focusing on the modeling and the simulation of emergency response risk decision that multi-sections involve in, a simulation model and simulation framework based on multi-agent and prospect theory are proposed. By introducing agent theory, the multi-agent architecture model of emergency risk decision is described and the decision agent are modelled. By introducing prospect theory, following the dynamic evolution of emergencies, the impact of the psychological changes of the decision-makers have on the decision results is studied. The multi-agent emergency risk decision simulation framework is designed and implemented. Taking the risk decision of a fire emergency in the petrochemical plants as an example, the availability and the feasibility of the model and the framework are verified.