考虑电价-出力关联不确定性的风电场投资分析

针对电力市场中电价的波动性、风能资源的随机性及可控性差等特性带来的投资风险,运用投资组合理论对风电场集群的投资资金进行合理配置,使得投资者在可承受风险范围内获得更高的资金回报率.首先,计及电价-出力关联不确定性,计算各个风电场每单位装机容量得到的年收益和收益的方差,建立计及不确定性的风电场投资风险分析模型;而后,运用投资组合理论进行风电场优化配置组合;最后,采用某地区的相关数据模拟仿真,用粒子群算法求解风险投资模型.分析计算结果表明,该方法有效可行.

Investment Analysis of Wind Farm Considering Electricity Price-Output Associated Uncertainty

Aiming at the investment risk caused by the fluctuation of electricity prices in electricity market, the randomness and poor controllability of wind power, the portfolio theory was utilized to make a rational allocation of investment assets for the wind farm cluster, in order to enable investors to obtain a higher return on capital within the range of acceptable risk. Firstly, the expectations and variances of annual revenue in per unit for each wind farm were calculated with considering the associated uncertainty of electricity price and output, and then an estimation model of wind farm investment risk was established with considering the uncertainty of wind farm. Secondly, the configuration combinations of wind farms were optimized by using portfolio theory. Finally, the related data of a certain area was used for simulation, and particle swarm optimization was used to solve the investment risk model, whose results demonstrated the efficiency of the method.