自下而上的主动配电网负荷曲线化预测方法

为在主动配电网负荷预测工作中计及柔性负荷的影响,提出了一种自下而上的主动配电网负荷的曲线化预测方法。首先,将待预测区域按用地性质、功能边界划分为若干小区,将每个区域的负荷需求细分为刚性负荷和柔性负荷需求两类;然后,建立可转移负荷和可调整负荷两种柔性负荷的曲线化调控模型,进而模拟主动管理策略下柔性负荷对整体负荷需求的调整作用;最后,将待预测区域的地块负荷进行叠加,得到主动配电网管理模式下的负荷需求曲线。通过北京某开发区负荷曲线预测算例,验证了所提预测模型和方法的有效性。

Bottom-to-top Load Curve Forecasting Method for Active Distribution Network

With the consideration of the influence of flexible load on load forecasting , a bottom-to-top load curve forecasting method for active distribution network is put forward in this paper. First , the area to be forecasted is divided into several units according to the land usage property and function boundary , and the load demand of each unit is divided into two types , i.e., rigid load demand and flexible load demand. Then , the curve regulation models for two flexible loads , i.e., transferable load and adjustable load , are established , which are further used to simulate the regulation effect of flexible load on the overall load demand under the active management strategy. Finally , the load on each unit of the area to be forecasted is superimposed , thus the load demand curve in the management mode of active distribution network is obtained. The effectiveness of the proposed forecasting model and method is verified by the load curve forecasting result of one development zone in Beijing.