豫皖湘赣承接产业转移的空间计量经济分析

豫皖湘赣四省是新一轮产业转移的重要承接地。利用标准差、变异系数、赫芬达尔指数、聚类分析、ESDA及空间计量经济模型等方法对四省承接产业转移的区域差异及影响因素进行研究。研究表明：① 豫皖湘赣四省承接产业转移的总量和绝对差异都在拉大,相对差异和集中程度都在降低后,有趋于稳定趋势;② 空间分布上大致形成以省会城市为核心、中间高四周低的圈层等级结构;③ 空间格局上,空间集聚态势进一步强化,逐步形成以郑州市和南昌市为核心的两大高高集聚区;④ 空间交互作用是四省承接产业转移空间差异形成的重要因素;⑤ 劳动力成本对产业转移有负向作用,经济发展水平、市场吸引力、技术创新能力、集聚效应、成本因素、对外开放度、区位条件及产业结构对产业转移具有正向作用,市场吸引力、集聚效应及对外开放度影响最大。

Spatial Econometric Analysis of Undertaking Industrial Transfer in Henan-Anhui-Hunan-Jiangxi Region

Since the international financial crisis in 2008, large-scale industrial transfer from the eastern coast to the inland has happened in China. A new round of industrial transfer mainly occurred in Henan-Anhui-Hunan-Jiangxi Region, and the spatial pattern of manufacturing sectors in these provinces has been reshaped. The article makes a research on the space differences and the forming mechanism of the undertaking industrial transfer of these 4 provinces, using the methods of standard deviation, coefficient of variation, Herfindahl index, cluster analysis, ESDA, spatial econometric model and so on. The findings can be summarized as follows: 1) The total amount and absolute disparity of the four provinces’ undertaking industrial transfer are widening and have a stable tendency after the relative disparity and degree of concentration’s decreasing; 2) In the spatial distribution, center on the provincial capital city and the rating-circle structure which is high in the middle and low on all sides have been roughly formed; 3) In the spatial pattern, the spatial agglomeration situation is further strengthened.The high-high agglomeration areasand the core of Zhengzhou and Nanchang, are gradually formed; 4) Spatial interaction plays a decisive role in the formation of spatial variation of four provinces’ industrial transfer; 5) Labour cost has a negative effect on the industrial transfer, while the economic development level, market attractiveness, capability of technological innovation, agglomeration effect, cost factors, degree of openness, geographic conditions and the industrial structure have a positive effect on industry transfer, especially the market attractiveness, agglomeration effect and degree of openness are the most influential factors.