| 基于灰色理论的铁路客运量预测影响因素优化 |
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| 引用本文： | 王文莉,杨俊红. 基于灰色理论的铁路客运量预测影响因素优化[J]. 微电子学与计算机, 2011, 28(10) |
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| 作者姓名： | 王文莉 杨俊红 |
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| 作者单位： | 郑州铁路职业技术学院信息工程系,河南郑州,450052 |
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| 基金项目： | 河南省教育厅自然科学研究指导计划项目(2009C520010) |
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| 摘 要： | 为了更好地反映各种相关因素对客运量的影响,实现铁路客运量预测模型中影响因素的优化选择,采用灰色理论对影响因素进行分析,并针对传统灰关联分析在具体应用中存在的关联评价值趋于均匀化、分辨系数取值影响排序结果等不足,提出一种采用动态分辨系数的铁路客运量灰关联分析方法,从而得到各因素对客运量的关联度,实现铁路客运量预测模型中影响因素的优化选择.仿真实验以河南省铁路客运量为例,结果表明预测精度得到了提高,此方法可行并且有效.
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| 关 键 词： | 铁路客运量预测 动态分辨系数 影响因素优化选择 灰关联分析 |
Optimal Selection of Factors Influencing Grey-theory-based Forecast of Railway Passenger Traffic Volume |
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| WANG Wen-li,YANG Jun-hong. Optimal Selection of Factors Influencing Grey-theory-based Forecast of Railway Passenger Traffic Volume[J]. Microelectronics & Computer, 2011, 28(10) |
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| Authors: | WANG Wen-li YANG Jun-hong |
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| Affiliation: | WANG Wen-li,YANG Jun-hong(Department of Information Engineering,Zhengzhou Railway Vocational & Technical College,Zhengzhou 450052,China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to better unfold the influences of related factors on railway passenger traffic volume to optimize the selection of factors influencing railway passenger traffic forecast modeling,this paper analyzes the influencing factors by the grey theory and introduces a novel grey correlation analysis approach to railway passenger traffic volume with dynamic resolution coefficients,considering the weaknesses of traditional correlation analysis embodied in specific applications such as relation appraisal tendi... |
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| Keywords: | forecast of railway passenger traffic volume dynamic resolution coefficient optimal selection of influencing factors grey correlation analysis |
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