基于统计学的中国典型大城市CO2排放达峰研究

对选取的36个中国典型大城市,分析2005—2019年直接CO2排放与总CO2排放特征,构建基于条件判断函数和Mann-Kendall趋势分析检验法的城市CO2排放达峰判断模型,判断36个城市排放是否达峰,并对达峰城市特征和处于不同排放阶段的典例城市进行深入分析.结果表明,36个典型大城市中,昆明、深圳与武汉3个城市已...

Study on peak CO2 emissions of typical large cities in China

The urban CO₂ emission peak judgment model based on the conditional judgment function and Mann-Kendall trend analysis test method was constructed to analyze their direct CO₂ emissions and total CO₂ emissions characteristics in the 36 typical large cities of China from 2005 to 2019, and determine whether the comprehensive CO₂ emissions of each city have reached its peaks. In-depth analysis on the characteristics of typical cities at different emission stages was also conducted. The results show that among the 36 typical large cities, Kunming, Shenzhen and Wuhan have reached their peaks, 8 cities are in the plateau period, and the remaining 25 cities have not reached their peaks comprehensively. It is recommended that cities that have not reached the peak of CO₂ emissions should learn the experience from the city that have reached the peak according to their own characteristics, such as adjusting the industrial structure and energy structure, reducing the intensity of carbon emissions, and strengthening the decoupling of carbon emissions from economic growth, so as to achieve the peak of carbon dioxide emissions as soon as possible.