| 奇台县粮食生产潜力变化过程分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 卢文娟,熊黑钢,李宝富.奇台县粮食生产潜力变化过程分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011(2):29-33. |
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| 作者姓名： | 卢文娟 熊黑钢 李宝富 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆大学资源与环境科学学院新疆绿洲生态重点实验室;北京联合大学应用文理学院; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(40771194); 北京市属高等学校人才强教计划项目(PHR200906125)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 据奇台县多年气象数据和农业生产资料,应用方差分析外推法、农业生态区域法等方法,分析了温度和降水的变化特征、光温水生产潜力与粮食实际单产的关系.结果表明:温度和降水的整体变化过程可分为冷、干时段(1970-1981)、过渡时段(1982-1999)和暖、湿时段(2000-2006).预计今后平均温度(2007-2014年...
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 生产潜力 实际单产 农业生态区域法 |
Crop production potential and comparion with grain yield in Qitai County |
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| LU Wenjuan,XIONG Heigang,LI Baofu.Crop production potential and comparion with grain yield in Qitai County[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2011(2):29-33. |
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| Authors: | LU Wenjuan XIONG Heigang LI Baofu |
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| Affiliation: | LU Wenjuan1,XIONG Heigang2,LI Baofu1(1.Institute of Resources and Environmental Science,Xinjiang University,Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology,Urumqi 830046,P.R.China,2.College of Arts and Sciences,Beijing Union University,Beijing 100083,P.R.China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the data of climate and agricultural production from 1970 to 2006 in Qitai County,the research analyzed the variation between temperature and rainfall,the relation of light-temperature-water potential productivity and grain yield by variance analysis,AEZ and so on.The results of research show that:the whole tendency of temperature and rainfall was divided into three phases:cold and dry(from 1970 to 1981),transition(from 1982 to 1999),warm and wet(from 2000 to 2006).The temperature(2007-2014,5.84℃)and precipitation(2007-2013,207.61mm) will be increased to 0.14℃,10.35mm.The light-temperature-water potential productivity model with high precision and accuracy rate of 94%,the grain yield is 6338.25kg/ha from 2007 to 2014.The tendency of light-temperature-water potential productivity and grain yield was divided into three stages:low-increased(1970-1981),accelerate-growed(1982-1999) and steady(2000-2006).The third stage of grain yield and light-temperature-water potential productivity for the first phase were 2.09 times,1.88 times.In addition to,the first two phases of grain yield was lower than 315.83kg/hm2 with light-temperature-water potential productivity.But the third stage was opposite,the former was more than 82.04kg/hm2 for the latter. |
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| Keywords: | climatic change productive potential grain yield per hectare AEZ |
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