面向战备完好的飞机群组预防性维护优化和备件预测方法

随着新时期作战环境的复杂化和战备训练任务强度的不断增大，对飞机装备的综合保障能力提出了更高要求。战备完好性（可用性）是保障飞机作战能力和成功遂行作战任务的核心技术指标之一，是飞机维护和备件管理水平的集中体现。本论文通过联立分析飞机组件典型故障规律和相应的寿命模型,以及飞机维修和备件管理水平（如检测时间、备件更换时间等），以单元级维护计划为基准，形成了基于日历时间的飞机群组预防性维护调度方法。在此基础上，研究了基于延迟时间和马尔科夫过程的系统平均可用度模型，对基础检修周期和检修窗口数开展了联合优化，并基于最优维护计划形成了备件预测方法。案例结果表明，相比传统的事后维护和定期维护，本论文的维护方法能够在精准可控的备件需求范围内，有效提升飞机的战备完好性。

Preventive Maintenance Optimization and Spare Parts Prediction Method for Aircraft Group Oriented to Operational Readiness

As the operational environment is increasingly complex and the training intensity keeps growing for operational readiness in the new era, aircraft equipment are required to be able to provide comprehensive support capabilities. Operational readiness (availability) is one of the core technical indicators of aircraft combat capability for successful combat tasks, which reflects the maintenance and spare parts management levels. To this end, simultaneous analysis is done for the typical failure law of aircraft components, the life model, and the levels of aircraft maintenance and spare parts management (such as inspection time, spare parts replacement time, etc.). First, the component-level maintenance policy is optimized to formulate the time-based system-level group maintenance scheduling method. Second, the system-level group maintenance policy is optimized and an availability model built based on the delay time and Markov process is studied. On this basis of the maintenance policy, spare parts prediction approach is developed. The results of the numerical study show that, compared with the traditional corrective maintenance and scheduled maintenance, the proposed approach can effectively improve the operational readiness of the aircraft within the precise and controllable range of demand for spare parts.