城轨交通断面客流与运力配置适用性研究

城市轨道交通最大断面客流量是配置列车运力的决定性因素,但客流的波动性和不确定性将导致断面客流量发生随机变化,路网结构稳定时,其值服从某种统计规律变化。文章首先通过最大断面客流量数理统计、参数估计、假设检验等步骤,研究断面客流量的概率分布分析方法,掌握其内在变化规律;然后基于统计规律,建立适应客流变化的运力配置方法,提高运力配置计划的编制水平;最后以2011年北京地铁1号线双休日客流数据分析为案例,对最大断面客流变化趋势、运力调整等提出合理化建议。

Study on Cross Section Passenger Flow and Capacity Configuration in Transit

The first steps are mathematical statistics, parameter estimation, hypothesis testing etc. for maximum cross section passenger flow, analysis methods for probability distribution of cross section passenger flow are studied, to understand its inherent variation regularity. Then, based on statistical regularity, methods for capacity configuration to adapt to passenger flow changes are established to improve planning levels for capacity configuration. In the end, the paper takes data analysis for weekend passenger flow on Beijing metro line 1 in 2011 as a case study, the maximum cross section passenger flow variation trends, capacity adjustments are put forward as optimal suggestions.