水库溃坝事故时间分布规律与趋势预测

基于我国50年已溃水库数据资料，利用能谱分析方法探讨水库溃坝事故的周期性规律，分析水库溃坝与太阳运动的相关性；对水库溃坝率随水库年龄别变化特征进行研究，提出水库溃坝率年龄别变化趋势。研究表明，水库溃坝事故的发生具有周期性，大周期为25年，小周期为12年左右；太阳活动与水库溃坝具有强相关关系；水库大坝投入运行的前5年是其整个运行过程的“婴儿期”，发生水库溃坝的概率较高；大坝溃坝率随着大坝运行年限的变化趋势类似于人口科学中人的年龄别死亡率变化趋势，呈“U”字型。

Time distribution and trend forecast of dam failure

Based on the available dam failure data in China, the method of energy spectrum analysis is applied to analyze the period of dam failure events, and the correlation of solar motion and dam failure is analyzed. The distribution of the rate of failure of dams of different age is also studied, compared with that of human being death rate of different age. It is concluded that the period of dam failure events could be found out , which shows a longer period of about 25 years and a shorter period of about 12 years. A strong correlative relationship could be confirmed between solar motion and dam failure events. The first 5 years of a newly-completed dam can be regarded as its / infant stage0 with a big dam failure possibility. The trend of age-specific dam-failure rate assumes the shape of letter/ U0, possessing a similarity with that of human being death rate.