理论雪期和滑雪气候适宜度评价——以长白山滑雪场为例

为科学分析雪资源气候属性,定量评价滑雪运动气候适宜度概况,本研究基于天气学原理,从气候角度设定了理论雪期概念;设定与滑雪运动密切相关的气温、风速、雪期降雪量3个指标的不同适宜度等级阈值,对各指标进行归一化处理并设计其转换函数;运用灰色关联度理论,结合欧氏距离法,构建滑雪气候适宜度指数评价模型,并以长白山滑雪场为例进行评价。结果表明: 长白山地区雪资源丰富,1981—2018年,理论雪期内的平均降雪量为64.6 mm;气候变暖背景下,平均雪期日数及降雪量随年代呈略有减少趋势,雪期开始时间随年代变化呈现延后趋势,结束时间呈提前趋势,且前冬(当年雪期开始至12月底)雪期日数明显少于后冬(次年1月初至雪期结束)雪期日数;长白山滑雪场雪期内滑雪气候适宜性高,气温、风速和降雪条件的最适宜和较适宜日数累计分别占91.9%、91.8%和94.6%;滑雪综合气候适宜度日数累计占比达99.7%,绝大多数时间适宜滑雪运动的开展。理论雪期概念的提出弥补了因初、终雪气象观测资料缺乏对雪资源研究等造成的困扰;滑雪运动气候适宜度评价模型可为滑雪场地开发和经营提供管理决策,为滑雪爱好者提供出行的科学支撑。

Theoretical snow period and assessment of skiing climate suitability: With Changbai Mountain Ski Resort as an example

To analyze the climatic characteristics of snow resources and quantitatively evaluate the climatic suitability of skiing, we proposed the concept of theoretical snow period from the perspective of climate based on the synoptic principle. We set threshold values of different suitability degrees of three indices closely related to skiing, including air temperature, wind speed, and precipitation. The conversion function of each index was designed after normalization. Based on grey relational theory and Euclidean distance method, we established evaluation model of ski sports climate suitability index, with Changbai Mountain Ski Resort as an example. The results showed that snow resource in Changbai Mountain area was rich. From 1981 to 2018, the average snowfall during the theoretical snow period was 64.6 mm. Under the background of climate change, the average number of snow days and snowfall decreased slightly over the years, with the starting time of snow season being delayed and the ending time being advanced. The number of snow days in the early winter (from the starting time of snow season to the end of December) was significantly less than that in the later winter (from the next January to the end of snow season). Climate in Changbai Mountain was highly suitable for skiing during the snow period. The most suitable and relatively suitable days with respect to air temperature, wind speed and precipitation accounted for 91.9%, 91.8%, and 94.6% of the total, respectively. The cumulative number of days for ski comprehensive weather suita-bility accounted for 99.7%, indicating that most days were suitable for skiing. The concept of theoretical snow period in this study had made up for the problems caused by the lack of meteorological observation data of the first and last snow event on the study of snow resources. The climate suitabi-lity evaluation model of skiing could help make management decision for the development and operation of ski resorts and scientific support for skiing enthusiasts.