综合能源系统整体架构设计及负荷预测

综合能源系统可有效减轻化石能源依赖、提升可再生能源利用水准,然而该类能源系统供能环节繁杂,耦合能源类型众多,合理规划并精准预测负荷势在必行。借助能源节点构建系统整体架构并对负荷做出预测。预测模型采用四类算法训练对应基学习器,借助已有结果训练元学习器从而得到最终结果,并选取欧洲ENTSO提供的瑞士多年份电力负荷数据佐证该模型的有效性。算例结果显示本文模型预测精度高于现有模型,可有效预测波动负荷,契合该类能源系统负荷预测场景。

Overall architecture design and load forecastingof integrated energysystem

The integrated energy system can effectively reduce the dependency on fossil energy andimprove the level of renewable energy utilization. However, it has complicated energy supply links and various coupled energy sources. Therefore , reasonable planning and accurate load forecastingmust be enforced. Energy nodes were used to construct the overall system architecture and forecast theload. The forecasting model used four types of algorithms to train the corresponding base learner, andtrain the meta-learner by the aid of the existing results to obtain the final result. The effectiveness ofthe model was verified by the multiyear power load data of Switzerland provided by ENTSO. The re-sults of the calculation example show that the prediction accuracy of the model in this paper is higherthan that of the existing model, and can effectively predict fluctuating load and fit the load forecastingscenario of this type of energy system.