《巴厘行动计划》以来适应气候变化谈判进展及未来需求分析

回顾了《巴厘行动计划》以来形成的与适应气候变化议题相关的国际决议及谈判进展，分析了这些决议对推动发展中国家适应气候变化进程的可能作用和面临的障碍，综述了发展中国家和发达国家对“2015气候协议”的利益诉求和建议。作者认为：《巴厘行动计划》以来，《联合国气候变化框架公约》下适应气候变化方面的谈判取得了较明显的进展，建立了适应委员会、国家适应计划进程和应对损失与危害的国际机制等；资金、技术研发、推广和使用、政策法规、机构设置与能力、信息等是提高发展中国家适应气候变化的限制因素；资金、技术转让和能力建设仍是“2015气候协议”谈判的重点和难点。针对非洲集团和小岛屿国家联盟全球适应目标和应对气候变化造成的损失与危害的补偿的提议，作者建议加强科学研究，开发评估方法和工具，探讨气候自然变率和人类活动导致的气候变化影响的归因；同时建议中国进一步加强适应气候变化的南南合作。

The Progress on Adaptation Negotiations Since Adoption of Bali Action Plan and Future Needs Analysis

International decisions and negotiation progress relevant to climate change adaptation since the adoption of decision Bali Action Plan (COP13) were reviewed. The role of these decisions on the enhancement of implementation of adaptation actions and constrains to implementation of adaptation actions in developing countries were analyzed. The interests and suggestions proposed by Parties on elements to be included in “2015 climate change agreements” were summarized. It was concluded that progress has been made on adaptation negotiations since the adoption of Bali Action Plan, and Adaptation Committee, national adaptation planning process, and Loss and Damage Mechanism have been established; Finance, technology research and development, diffusion and deployment, policies, national institutional arrangements and capacity, information and knowledge are major barriers for developing countries to adapt to climate change; For future adaptation negotiations, finance, technology and capacity building support will still be a focus. With regard to the proposals made by African group (global goal of adaptation) and Alliance of Small Island States (loss and damage caused by adverse effects of climate change), it is needed for further research on developing assessment methodologies and tools and exploring the attribution of climate variability and human activity induced climate change impacts. Finally, further enhancing south-south adaptation cooperation is recommended.