黄河流域天然径流量评价探讨

针对现有径流系列一致性处理方法不够具体的问题,提出了一种黄河流域天然径流量还原、还现算法。根据黄河流域入海口利津站的实测径流、利津断面以上流域地表水消耗量、地下水开采引起的地表径流减少量、人工水库和淤地坝水面蒸发增加量、水库蓄变量等数据,对利津站的天然地表径流量进行还原分析,并以2001—2016年下垫面作为参照下垫面估算下垫面还现后的天然径流量。结果表明:1956—2016年长系列的黄河利津站地表水天然径流量为577.72亿m³,下垫面还现后的天然径流量为551.72亿m³,还现天然径流量比流域机构给出的第三次水资源评价结果多61.72亿m³。

Discussion on evaluation of natural runoff in the Yellow River Basin

As the existing methods for consistency processing of runoff series were not detailed enough, an improved algorithm for restoring natural runoff in the Yellow River Basin was proposed. The natural surface runoff at the Lijin Station near the Yellow River Estuary was restored and analyzed based on the measured runoff at the station and the data in the basin above the Lijin section, including the surface water consumption, reduction of surface runoff caused by groundwater exploitation, increase of water surface evaporation from artificial reservoirs and check dams, and storage variable of reservoirs. Furthermore, the current natural surface runoff was estimated using the current underlying surface which references the underlying surface during 2001 to 2016. Based on the long series from 1956 to 2016, the natural surface runoff at the Lijin Station of the Yellow River was 57.772 billion m³, and the natural runoff with the current underlying surface was 55.172 billion m³, which was 6.172 billion m³ higher than the results of the third water resources evaluation given by the basin agency.