输电线路最佳经济寿命区间评估

为提高电网规划与运维决策的科学性,提出了一种以全寿命周期年平均成本最小为依据的输电线路最佳经济寿命区间评估方法。该方法在计算输电线路故障率时,不仅考虑了线路役龄,还考虑了气候与自然灾害、地理与外力破坏环境因素,以及部件与土建、运行与检修质量状况对输电线路故障率的影响;并采用最小二乘支持向量机按故障后果严重程度分别计算一般故障、较大故障和严重故障3类故障率,使得故障率的计算更加可信。此外,该方法采用区间分析法计算输电线路寿命周期的各项成本,消除了单一定值带来的成本计算误差。算例验证了输电线路最佳经济寿命区间评估方法的有效性,并指出了评估结果对电网规划与运维决策的指导作用。

Optimal Economic Life Interval Evaluation of Transmission Lines

To make power network planning and decision-making of operation and maintenance more scientific, a method for estimating optimal economic life interval of transmission line based on minimum annual average cost of life cycle is proposed. The method considers not only the enlistment age, but also climate, natural disaster, geographical and external forces, components, civil work, operation and maintenance as influencing factors on the failure rate of transmission lines. The least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) is then adopted to calculate the failure rates of ordinary failure, large failure and catastrophic failure to make calculated results more credible. In addition, this method uses the theory of interval analysis to calculate different costs of transmission lines, which successfully eliminates the error of cost calculation due to simplex setting value. In the end, a case study proves the effectiveness of the proposed method in evaluating optimal economic life interval of transmission lines, and points out the guidance effect of the evaluation results on power network planning and decision-making of operation and maintenance. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51107112).