变化环境对华北平原地下水可持续利用的影响研究

针对华北平原地下水利用中存在的问题,采用分布式水文MIKE SHE模型,考虑人类活动(农业节水措施和南水北调工程)和气候变化等变化环境的影响,通过设定4大类情景(每类情景中均设定了3类气候变化子情景)模拟了2019-2028年华北平原地下水的利用状况.结果 表明:农业节水措施和南水北调工程等人类活动对华北平原地下水水位...

Impacts of changing environment on sustainable utilization of groundwater in the North China Plain

Regarding to the problem of groundwater utilization in the North China Plain (NCP) caused by the changing environment, we simulated the groundwater utilization status of the NCP from 2019 to 2028 using the distributed hydrological model (MIKE SHE). In this model, four scenarios (three climate change sub scenarios were set in each scenario) were set considering the impacts of the changing environment, including climate change and human activities (agricultural water saving measures and South to North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP)). The results show that human activities such as agricultural water saving measures and SNWDP have a great impact on the water level, water balance and aquifer reserves of groundwater in NCP. By the end of the simulation period (December 31, 2028), compared with the status quo maintenance (SQM) scenario, the reserves of saturated aquifers in NCP under scenarios of agricultural water saving (AWS), SNWDP and comprehensive utilization (CU) increased by 0.168, 0.558 and 1.433 m, respectively. The impact of climate change on groundwater in NCP was equivalent to that of human activities, and the change direction and magnitude of the water level, water balance and aquifer reserves of groundwater were positively correlated with the status of dryness and wetness of future climate. By the end of the simulation period, compared with SQM, the saturated aquifer reserves in NCP under humid and normal climate scenarios increased by 0.972-2.239 m and 0.119-1.540 m respectively; but decreased by 0.372-0.940 m under the arid climate scenario. In order to ensure the sustainable utilization of groundwater in NCP, all kinds of water diversion and water saving measures should be taken into consideration.