考虑土体强度参数深度依赖性的非平稳随机场边坡滑动深度和体积分析

基于随机有限元方法（RFEM）和Monte-Carlo模拟，建立了能够模拟具有深度依赖性的土体强度参数边坡或具有软弱夹层边坡的非平稳随机场模型。通过辐射扫描方法获取最危险滑动面，得到非平稳随机场边坡滑动深度和滑动体积。将该方法与均质边坡和平稳随机场边坡获得的滑动深度和滑动体积进行对比，研究土体强度参数深度依赖性的非平稳随机场边坡的不同坡度和各向异性对滑动深度和滑动体积的影响。结果表明：基于RFEM的非平稳随机场滑动深度和滑动体积结果为地质灾害风险及后果评估提供了一个参考分析的新角度；参数的深度依赖性程度越高(变化率b越大)，则边坡平均滑动深度和滑动体积越小；在大坡度滑坡风险后果评估中，可以基于均质边坡分析结果进行初步预估；在非平稳随机场中，随着各向异性的增大，所有坡度边坡的滑动体积变异系数增大；不同坡度下，水平方向的相关程度越大，则土坡内软弱夹层的不确定性越强，滑动体积的变异系数也不断增大。

Sliding depth and volume analysis of non-stationary random field slopes considering depth-dependent soil strength parameters

Based on the random finite element method (RFEM) and Monte-Carlo simulations, a non-stationary random field model is established for the simulation of slopes with depth-dependent soil strength parameters or slopes with weak interlayers. The most likely failure surface is obtained by the radiation scanning method, and the sliding depth and volume of the non-stationary random field slope are simulated. Then the sliding depth and volume obtained by this method are compared with those of the homogeneous slope and the stationary random field slope, so as to study the influence of the non-stationary random field slope with the depth-dependent soil strength parameters on the sliding depth and volume under different slope angles and anisotropy conditions. The results indicate that the study of non-stationary random field sliding depth and volume based on RFEM provides a referential analysis angle for the geological hazard risk and consequence evaluation. The higher the depth dependence of the parameter (the greater the change rate b), the slower the average sliding depth and volume of the slope gradually decreases. In the process of evaluating the risk consequences of a large slope landslide, a preliminary estimation can be made based on the results of the homogeneous slope analysis. In a non-stationary random field, as the anisotropy increases, the variation coefficient of the sliding volume at all angles increase. Under different slope angles, the greater the correlation of the soil slope in the horizontal direction, the greater the uncertainty of the weak interlayer in the soil slope, and the larger the variation coefficient of the sliding volume.