| 期房市场对现房市场价格稳定效应的实证研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王松涛,刘洪玉,陈伟,龙奋杰.期房市场对现房市场价格稳定效应的实证研究[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2007,47(6):781-784. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王松涛 刘洪玉 陈伟 龙奋杰 |
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| 作者单位： | 清华大学,建设管理系,北京,100084 |
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| 摘 要： | 对上海市2000年11月提高商品房预售条件对现房市场价格的影响进行了实证研究。以期房市场对现房市场价格的稳定效应为出发点,分析取消商品房预售制度对中国房地产市场产生的可能影响。广义自回归条件异方差模型分析表明:提高预售条件不仅从长期显著提高了上海市现房市场的价格水平,而且还导致上海市现房市场价格波动性的显著增强。就稳定住房价格这一房地产业宏观调控目标而言,短期内直接取消商品房预售制度并不具备可行性。
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| 关 键 词： | 期房市场 现房市场 价格稳定效应 自回归条件 异方差模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-0054(2007)06-0781-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年5月12日 |
Stabilizing effect of the pre-sale market Oil spot housing prices |
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| WANG Songtao,LIU Hongyu,CHEN Wei,LONG Fenjie.Stabilizing effect of the pre-sale market Oil spot housing prices[J].Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology),2007,47(6):781-784. |
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| Authors: | WANG Songtao LIU Hongyu CHEN Wei LONG Fenjie |
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| Abstract: | The influence of pre-sale qualification enhancement initiated by Shanghai government in November 2000 on spot housing prices was analyzed using empirical data from the Shanghai housing market.The observed stabilizing effect of the pre-sale market on spot housing prices was used to predict the possible influence on China's housing market if the current pre-sale market was cancelled.Results from the generalized autoregressive conditional Heteroskedastic model indicate that not only made the spot housing prices increased in the long run,but also the price volatility of the spot housing market increased significantly.Therefore,the pre-sale housing market should not be eliminated in the short run since the real estate industry seeks to stability fast-rising housing prices. |
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| Keywords: | pre-sale market spot market stabilizing effect autoregressive conditions Heteroskedastic model |
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