基于人粮关系的承德市土地资源承载力

以人粮关系为基础,用土地资源承载指数(Land Carrying Ca-pacity Index,LCCI)模型,定量评价1949—2009年承德市土地资源承载力。结果表明:1949—2009年承德市土地资源承载能力在波动中略有增长趋势,随着人口的持续稳定增长,到2009年承德土地资源承载力仍未达到人粮平衡状态。除了1996年和1998年以外的所有年份处于人口超载状态。34.42%的年份严重超载,其中有7年人口超载率Rg>100%,这7年降水量均小于485.20 mm,承德市粮食产量与其降水量密切相关,应该增加旱作农业科技含量,以保证粮食产量的不断增加。

Land Carrying Capacity of Chengde City Based on Man-Grain Relationship

This paper quantitatively evaluates the land carrying capacity of Chengde between 1949 and 2009 using the land carrying capacity（LCC） and the land carrying capacity index（LCCI） models based on man-grain relationship.The results show that the land carrying capacity of Chengde tends to increase since 1949,and the land carrying capacity of Chengde City is slightly increasing in the volatility trend from 1949 to 2009 because of the population continued to grow steadily.It is in the state of population overload every year except 1996 and 1998.34.42% of the years are seriously overloaded.There are seven years population overload rate Rg〉100%.These seven annual precipitation is less than 485.20mm.Grain yield and its precipitation is closely related in Chengde.Dry farming should be scientific to ensure that food production is increasing.