基于模糊层次分析法的京津冀洪灾风险评价

针对京津冀一体化发展的总体需求,采用模糊层次分析法,开展京津冀地区洪灾风险评价研究。首先从致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体三个方面分析遴选评价指标,采用模糊算法与层次分析法相结合,构造模糊一致判断矩阵确定各指标相对权重,并利用GIS技术将多维指标映射为一维评判准则,建立京津冀地区洪灾风险综合评价模型,确定洪灾风险空间分布状况,实现京津冀洪灾风险等级区划。结果表明:中高风险区主要分布于滦河、大清河及子牙河沿岸,特别是子牙河南支滏阳河上游、大清河南支河系上游以及白洋淀周边区域风险较高;北京、天津、石家庄等中心城区局部区域风险较低,城乡防洪标准提高后,相应区域的洪灾风险等级进一步降低。洪灾风险计算方法和区划结果具有合理性,研究成果可为区域洪灾风险区划和京津冀协同发展规划提供参考。

FAHP-based flood risk assessment on Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Aiming at the overall demand of the integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region，a study of the flood risk assessment on the region is carried out with the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP). Firstly，the assessment indexes are selected from the aspects of disaster-inducing factor，disaster-pregnant environment and disaster-bearing body，and then the relative weights of all the indexes are determined with the fuzzy consistent judgement matrix made through combining fuzzy algorithm with analytic hierarchy process，while the model for the comprehensive flood risk assessment on Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is established by mapping the multi-dimensional indexes into one-dimension judgement criteria with GIS technique for determining the spatial distribution status of flood risk and realizing the zoning of the flood risk grade for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The result shows that the areas with medium-high risk are mainly distributed along Luanhe Ｒiver，Daqinghe Ｒiver and Ziyahe Ｒiver，especially the flood risk is higher for the southern branch of Ziyahe Ｒiver———the Upper Fuyanghe Ｒiver，the upper river system of the southern branch of Daqinghe Ｒiver and the areas around Baiyangdian Lake. The flood ricks within the local areas of the central urban districts of Beijing，Tianjin，Shijianzhuang，etc. are lower，while the grades of flood rick in the corresponding areas are to be further lowered after the improvement of the rural and urban flood control criteria. Not only the calculation method and zoning result mentioned herein are reasonable，but the study result can also provide references for the regional flood rick assessment and the collaborative development planning of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.