基于系统多层次灰色模型的洪灾风险综合评价方法-以鄱阳湖流域为例

洪水灾害风险评价是一个多因素协同影响效应的系统过程。在分析洪水风险系统的基础上,并从洪水风险评估的角度,综合考虑了致灾因子,孕灾环境和承灾体的相关因素,构建了洪水灾害风险综合评价体系,融合灰色聚类法与层次分析的数据处理优势,提出了适应洪水灾害风险预测的系统多层次灰色综合评价方法。以鄱阳湖流域为例,通过定性与定量分析相结合,对鄱阳湖流域洪水风险系统进行了综合评价,为流域内洪水灾害风险综合评价提供了参考依据。

Comprehensive evaluation method of flood risk based on mul ti2level gray system model- a case study in Poyang Lake Basin

Floo d r isk assessment is a systematic pro cess with t he synerg y effects betw een mult iple factor s. Based o n the analy sisof flood r isk system, a compr ehensive flo od r isk assessment system w as co nstr ucted in consideratio n o f the fact ors including thedisaster2inducing facto rs, disaster2inducing environment, and disast er bear ing bo dy f rom the perspect ive of flo od r isk evaluation.The data pro cessing advantag es o f gr ay cluster ing method and analytical hier archy pr ocess( AH P) w ere integ rated and a com2prehensive evaluat ion method o f multi2 level g ray system w as pro po sed to adapt the flo od disaster r isk predictio n. T he methodwas applied in the Poy ang Lake Basin. The combinatio n of qualitative and quantitativ e analy sis of the flo od r isk system in thePoy ang Lake Basin can pro vide reference for the compr ehensive evaluat ion of floo d r isk in the basin.