学校及托幼机构流行性感冒疫情传播能力评估和停课措施效果评价

目的 评价学校及托幼机构流行性感冒聚集性疫情传播能力和停课措施效果,为制定疾病管理策略和控制措施提供依据.方法 采用SEIAR动力学模型对深圳市福田区学校发生的流行性感冒疫情数据进行模拟,计算疫情的基本再生系数(R0)来评价疫情传播能力,计算疫情的累计罹患率来评价停课措施的防控效果.结果 学校流感疫情无干预情况下R0值...

Assessment of transmission capacity of influenza and effect evaluation of suspension measures in schools and nurseries

  Objective  To estimate the transmission capacity of influenza clustering in schools and nurseries, and to evaluate the effect of suspension measures, providing a basis for formulating disease management strategies and control measures.  Methods  The SEIAR dynamics model was used to simulate the epidemic data, calculating the basic regeneration coefficient R₀ of the epidemic to evaluate the epidemic transmission capacity, and calculating the cumulative incidence rate of the epidemic to evaluate the prevention and control effect of the suspension measures.  Results  The basic regeneration coefficient R₀ was 8.44(8.01, 8.89) without intervention. There were statistically significant differences in R₀ of influenza epidemic among different types of school(F=9.52, P < 0.01). The R₀ of influenza epidemic in primary and secondary schools were higher than that in nurseries(P < 0.05). R₀ of influenza A was higher than that of influenza B(t=2.71, P < 0.01). R₀ of influenza A(H3) was higher than of influenza B(Victoria)(P < 0.05). The cumulative incidence of the outbreaks which were suspended for 4 days and 7 days was significantly lower than that in the non-suspensions(P < 0.05). However, there was no significant difference in the cumulative incidence of the outbreaks between the 4-day suspension and the 7-day suspension(P>0.05).  Conclusion  Transmission capacity of school-based influenza epidemic is high, especially among primary and secondary schools. When the epidemic situation of infected class meets the suspension standard, it is recommended to suspend classes for 4 days.