基于多模式货运方式配流的港区吞吐量预测研究

以货运量调查为基础, 分析货运OD特征, 建立考虑道路运输网、内河运输网、海上运输网的多模式货运网络分配模型, 采用Dijkstra算法求解和分配影响区内货运需求OD点对, 得出多模式网络的运量分布, 并以港区作为枢纽节点, 推算出港区吞吐量大小. 最后, 以慈溪杭州湾港区为例, 应用分配模型推算港区吞吐量. 结果表明 2025年慈溪杭州湾港区总吞吐量将达到51.44×106 t, 2030年慈溪杭州湾港区总吞吐量将达到62.63×106 t, 多模式分配方法为港区建设可行性分析提供了量化方法和决策依据.

Port throughput forecast based on multi-mode freight distribution

In this paper, based on the traffic volume survey, and analysis of the freight OD characteristics, a multimodal freight network distribution is modeled by taking into account the road transport network, inland transport network, and maritime transport network. Dijkstra algorithm is used to solve and allocate OD point pairs affecting the area, and the traffic volume distribution of the multi-mode network is built. The port area is taken as the hub node to calculate the throughput size in the port area. Finally, taking the Hangzhou Bay port area as an example, the throughput of the port area is calculated using the proposed allocation model. The results procast that the total throughput of Cixi Hangzhou Bay Port Area will reach 51.44×106 t in 2025 and 62.63×106 t in 2030 respectively. The multi-mode allocation method provides quantitative method and decision-making basis for the feasibility analysis of port area construction.