基于模糊网络进度计划的工程完工风险评价

在传统网络进度计划基础上,引入模糊风险元的概念,建立了模糊网络进度计划完工概率解析模型,并给出了完工概率与工程完工期风险评价关系。以某大型引水工程为例,应用所建立的完工概率解析模型,分别进行了工程完工概率的静态和动态分析计算,并进行了工程按期完工的风险评价。结果表明:在施工作业中难以得到风险元的概率和概率分布时,该方法可以较为贴切地描述网络计划中工作的持续时间,且可以简便地计算出工程按计划工期完工的概率。

Project Completion Risk Assessment Based on Fuzzy Network Schedule

Based on traditional network schedule and the introduction of the concept of fuzzy risk,a fuzzy network schedule completion probability analytical model was established,and risk assessment relationship of the completion probability and the project time limit was proposed.Taking a large water diversion project for an example,by the completion probability analytical model,it analyzed the static and dynamic completion probability respectively and evaluated the project completion risk on schedule.The results show that the risk probability and the probability distribution is difficult to obtain in the construction operations,the method can be more appropriate to describe the work duration of the network schedule,and can easily calculate the project completion probability.