基于NWP辐照度斜面转换的光伏功率预测方法

短期光伏功率预测统计方法一般采用数值天气预报(numerical weather prediction, NWP)的水平辐照度, 而不是倾斜安装的光伏板上接收到的斜面辐照度, 导致预测精度不足。针对这一问题提出新的辐照度斜面转换方法, 先将散射辐射分为属性不同的分子散射、米散射, 再对两者分别进行斜面转换; 采用该方法将NWP水平辐照度转换为NWP斜面辐照度, 再基于NWP斜面辐照度进行光伏功率建模与预测。算例结果显示, 本方法的预测精度(均方根误差为10.25%、相关性系数为0.914 0)高于直接采用NWP水平辐照度的传统方法。

Photovoltaic power prediction method based on NWP irradiance inclination conversion

Short-term photovoltaic (PV) power predictions statistical methods generally used the horizontal irradiance in numerical weather prediction (NWP) directly, but not the inclined irradiance received by tilt PV panels, which led to the calculation results not accurate enough. This paper proposed a new method to convert horizontal irradiance to inclined one. The method distinguished scattering into molecular scattering and Mie scattering with different properties, and then converted them separately. Using the new method, the paper converted NWP horizontal irradiance to inclined one. Based on inclined one, PV power model and prediction were made. The result of an example showed that the new method, whose root mean square error was 10.25% and correlation coefficient was 0.914 0, was more accurate than the traditional method, which used NWP horizontal irradiance directly.