GIS空间叠加下模糊优化法的页岩气有利区预测

在综合储集层、经济效益、资源规模等因素的基础上，借鉴北美页岩气有利区勘探相关研究成果，结合淮南煤田山西组页岩地球化学、沉积等特征，筛选出8个影响因素作为页岩气有利区评价优选指标，并建立相应的页岩气有利区评价模型。通过层次分析方法确定了淮南煤田页岩气有利区评价指标的权重，采用统计类比法、待定系数法和模糊优化技术，确定各个评价参数的隶属度。以模糊优化评价方法为基础，结合GIS空间叠加技术，对淮南煤田山西组页岩气有利区进行综合评价和预测。研究结果表明：淮南煤田山西组页岩气有利区可以分为4类，最终优选出研究区东南区域、古店乡—顾桥乡—桂集乡—刘集乡一带及杨楼乡一带为页岩气优等有利开发区。

Prediction of Shale Gas Favorable Areas by Fuzzy Optimization Method Based on Spatial Overlay Technology of Geographic Information System

On the basis of comprehensive factors such as reservoir, economic benefit and resource scale, etc, this paper refers to the research results from North American shale gas favorable areas prospecting, combines with the geochemical and sedimentary characteristics of Shanxi shales in Huainan coalfield, screens out eight influencing factors as the optimum indexes for shale gas favorable areas evaluation,and develops corresponding models for it. By using analytical hierarchy process (AHP), the weights of these evaluation indexes are present?ed, and by means of statistical analogy, undetermined coefficient method and fuzzy optimization technology, the membership values of each evaluation parameter are determined. Finally, the shale gas favorable areas of Shanxi formation in Huainan coalfield are comprehensively evaluated and predicted by fuzzy optimization and geographic information system(GIS) spatial overlay techniques. The results show that the favorable areas can be divided into four categories, of which the southeastern part in the study area, Gudian?Guqiao?Guiji?Liuji rural areas and Yanglou rural area are the most favorable areas for shale gas development