基于风电不确定性的电力系统备用容量获取

针对风电功率预测的不确定性对电力系统备用容量的影响，建立了基于风电不确定性的备用容量获取模型。首先利用场景法模拟生成风电功率、负荷及常规机组的不确定性模型，进而对生成场景进行概率统计得出系统差额概率密度函数，得出系统电量不足期望(EENS)和风能浪费风险(EWWR)指标，并通过EENS和EWWR指标及备用容量成本从系统可靠性和经济性两方面折中进行系统正、负备用容量的确定。最后通过10机系统仿真，验证了该方法在满足可靠性前提下有效地减少了备用成本和弃风量。

Reserve capacity model based on the uncertainty of wind power in the power system

According to the impact of the wind power prediction uncertainty on the power system reserve capacity, the reserve capacity model based on the uncertainty of wind power is established. First, the method of scenario is used to simulate the uncertainty model of the wind power, load and conventional generators, then the probability statistics on these scenarios is given in order to obtain the probability density of the system power difference, and the expected energy not supplied (EENS) and expected wind waste risk (EWWR) are presented; the reserve capacity is determined by the two aspects which are the reliability of EENS and EWWR and the economy of reserve capacity cost. Finally, simulations on a ten-unit system are given to demonstrate the method is effective to reduce the cost of reserve and the abandoned wind power in the context of system reliability.