基于不确定理论的输电网规划

电力系统中存在着一系列不确定因素,而智能电网的发展给电力系统带来了更多且不确定程度更高的不确定因素。传统的规划方法不适应新形势下的输电网规划,为使规划方案能适应不确定因素带来的影响,不确定理论被引入输电网规划中,取得了一系列成果。分别从随机理论、模糊集理论、可信性理论等方面,对国内外不确定因素建模方法的研究成果和基于不确定理论的输电网规划方法的研究成果进行了综述。从规划方案不确定性评价指标的快速计算、不确定因素的处理等方面,展望了未来基于不确定理论的输电网规划方法研究中需要关注的问题。

Transmission Network Planning Approaches Based on Uncertainty Theories

There exist uncertain factors in power systems, and the development of the smart grid has brought about more uncertainties to power systems. The traditional transmission network planning methods are not adapted to transmission system planning in the new situation. In order to make planning schemes adaptable to the effects of uncertainties, uncertainty theories have been introduced into transmission network planning with success. From the perspective of random theory, fuzzy set theory, credibility theory and whatnot the domestic and international achievements in modeling methods of uncertainties and uncertainty theories based transmission system planning approaches are reviewed. In terms of fast calculation for evaluation indices, processing methods for uncertainties and so forth, problems to be noticed and suggestions for future research on the uncertainty theory based transmission network planning are put forward. This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No. 51337005)and State Grid Corporation of China(No. XT71-14-002).